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Osborne Pledges More An 'Autumn Restatement'

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 03 Desember 2014 | 14.47

So far it has been more of the Autumn Restatement than anything else - with the big headline numbers on road building and flood defences already known.

A third of the extra £2bn for the NHS already exists. Even the headline measures of what the tabloids will call a "White Van Man" Budget, on fuel duty and air passenger duty for children, are small fry.

Approving the principle of devolving corporation tax to Northern Ireland is a significant step in the context of the Democratic Unionist Party's possible parliamentary bargaining power.

The Scottish government too has shown its concerns.

And watch out for the impact of the Welfare Cap.

A series of fascinating discussions have gone on between the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Department for Work and Pensions.

Essentially the OBR will judge whether capped welfare (excluding pensions) can be kept under £119.5bn next year.

The big picture will be a fiscal announcement with no net giveaways - basically fiscally neutral - but perhaps even a small symbolic takeaway.

That is because, as we know, the cupboard remains bare even after four years of deficit reduction.

So the main story will be the big macroeconomic numbers. There will be a lot to boast about.

From the best growth figures in the G7 to the extraordinary jobs numbers. But given that, the deficit numbers and poor tax receipts cancelled any hope for proper pre-election goodies.

Nigel Lawson's pre-election income tax cut of 2p in the pound was never going to be repeated, except as a vague conditional Conservative Conference aspiration.

For there is a nagging doubt at the heart of the Conservatives. After a year of recovery and a rapid rise in the feel good factor (measured by consumer confidence) and rises in house prices, Conservative poll ratings have remained stubbornly anchored in the low 30s. The feel good factor is missing in action.

That rise in consumer confidence flattened out in the summer, and is now dipping slightly. Black clouds are emerging from the continent.

More than that, the Miliband economic narrative on "cost of living crisis" remains strong, even if not all those who believe it will vote Labour.

Economic pessimists are fuelling UKIP's surge up the polls.

The sight of the Chancellor and Prime Minister apparently crowing about macroeconomic success has not been a vote winner in these circumstances.

It did not work in a thoroughly normal constituency such as Rochester and Strood.

So yes, the aim of this Autumn Statement will be to get the argument away from Europe and immigration and on to the economy.

But Mr Osborne will also try to modulate the boasts. The argument to be made will be a relative one.

People might not feel it everywhere, but a corner has been turned, and if they don't feel good, at least they might feel less bad than they would under "an untested Opposition with no economic plan".

That is more "feel better" than necessarily "feel good".


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Autumn Statement Bingo: What To Listen Out For

Political Editor Faisal Islam and Economics Editor Ed Conway pick out five key words and phrases likely to pass the lips of the Chancellor during the Autumn Statement.

Faisal's Five

:: Long-Term Economic Plan

The four word slogan drilled in to every piece of Conservative messaging online, offline, from speeches to mugs.

Designed to offer the electorate a feeling that the good times will return if they stick to the plan.

:: Northern Powerhouse

It was a phrase scratched together quickly by a clever Number 11 adviser to head off a Labour initiative on rebalancing the economy.

But it has grown in to a multifaceted plan for transport, science, devolving powers to create a mini-London along the M62.

:: The Choice

From now until the election the Conservative strategy is to shake the electorate into viewing the election not as a fight over policy, but as a straightforward choice between two prime ministers.

David Cameron with a growing economy after tough choices. And Ed Miliband, who they want the nation to view as an unconvincing anti-business former adviser to Gordon Brown.

:: Our NHS

In Conservative speeches the NHS has acquired a possessive pronoun.

The party knows public trust is weak for them on this, so they are after a score draw with Labour, neutralising claims of "privatisation" and attacking the Labour record in Wales.

:: In it Together

The old ones are the best. Many would argue that by promising unfunded tax cuts and further cash freezes in benefits, this phrase is now old hat.

But look out for the Chancellor trying to make the argument that British austerity was modest and moderate, in comparison to that seen in say Spain and Greece.

Ed's Five

:: A recovery for all

The point behind this buzzphrase is that the Treasury is worried about the perception that the recovery is not being shared by all - that the wealthiest have benefited most from its post-crisis policies while the poorest have faced the biggest squeeze.

:: Cutting the deficit by a third

There is bound to be some kind of line about how much the Government has cut the deficit - though the precise configuration tends to change from year to year.

:: "760,000 new businesses since 2010"

This recent buzzphrase is being trotted out repeatedly by Government ministers.

It's intended to underline how dynamic the business community is at the moment. And, indeed, the number of businesses being created right now is rising very quickly.

However, some notes of caution are in order: it is likely that a significant chunk of these new businesses are single-person companies.

:: Strongest growth in the Western world

The Chancellor will almost certainly point towards figures showing Britain is growing faster than many of its peers.

And indeed, the improvement in GDP, and the fall in unemployment, have been sharper in the UK than in many other developed countries.

:: Full employment

Earlier this year, the Chancellor pledged to try to "fight for full employment in Britain".

Expect this to resurface at some point in the Autumn Statement. In part this is another bit of political signalling - an effort to get people to focus on the positive news from the labour market.


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Osborne 'To Stay On Course To Prosperity'

By Darren McCaffrey, Sky Political Reporter

Around a billion pounds of investment for small and medium sized businesses, relief on petrol prices and changes to business rates to help the High Street are just some of the Autumn Statement measures to be announced later.

Plans to make stamp duty more progressive, easing the bill for people buying at the bottom end of the market but with possible heavier charges on more expensive homes, could also be unveiled by George Osborne later in what has been described as the "Government's last big economic event".

The Chancellor will say: "Our long-term economic plan is working. I say: we stay the course. We stay the course to prosperity.

"We support people who want to work hard and get on. And it is for their sakes that we resolve to stay on course to prosperity."

The Treasury and the Bank of England have agreed to extend the Funding For Lending (FLS) scheme by another year to January 2016 - underwriting loans specifically for smaller firms.

Mr Osborne is also allocating an extra £400m to expand the state-owned British Business Bank's venture capital programme.

And it will be handed funding to guarantee up to £500m of new lending in 2015-16.

The Chancellor is also expected to scrap the Fair Fuel Stabiliser, which would have seen petrol prices increase by 1p next March.

Air Passenger Duty on children's flights is also due to be abolished, which could reduce the cost of long haul flights by hundreds of pounds for families.

And there could be help for the High Street, with a review of business rates and how it is calculated due to be completed by early 2016. Rising rates have in part been blamed for hitting traditional town centre shops.

The Chancellor is expected to have to acknowledge that net borrowing will miss targets and reach about £90bn – greater than the £86.5bn predicted in March during the budget.

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  1. Gallery: See How The UK's Economy Is Doing

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Flooding Fund: £2.3bn To Protect 300,000 Homes

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 02 Desember 2014 | 14.47

Flooding Fund: £2.3bn To Protect 300,000 Homes

We use cookies to give you the best experience. If you do nothing we'll assume that it's ok.

More than 1,400 projects will receive a share of £2.3bn to protect against flooding for 300,000 homes.

But environmental group Friends of the Earth has suggested that figure is not high enough and there is still a £500m shortfall in the flood defences budget in the next parliament.

The spending includes major investment in areas including the Humber Estuary, with £80m set to be spent, and £196m for the Thames Estuary.

Ministers will also commit to spending £15.5m on flood defences in Somerset in the next six years - including £4.2m on the Somerset Levels which were hit badly by flooding last winter.

The Government has come under fire over funding for flood defences.

Danny Alexander MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: "We all saw the destruction and heartache caused by flooding last year and that is why this investment is vital to build up Britain's defences for the future.

"The projects we are announcing today will protect some of the country's most at risk locations ensuring that we will be as prepared as possible for future severe weather."

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  1. Gallery: Somerset Flooding - Before & After

    Before: a farm in West Yeo, near Bridgewater on the Somerset Levels. Pic: Bing maps

After: The flooded farmland in West Yeo

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Before: The village of Moorland near Bridgewater on the Somerset Levels. Pic: Bing maps

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After: Flooded properties in Moorland

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Before: Walton-On-Thames, Surrey

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Flooding Fund: £2.3bn To Protect 300,000 Homes

We use cookies to give you the best experience. If you do nothing we'll assume that it's ok.

More than 1,400 projects will receive a share of £2.3bn to protect against flooding for 300,000 homes.

But environmental group Friends of the Earth has suggested that figure is not high enough and there is still a £500m shortfall in the flood defences budget in the next parliament.

The spending includes major investment in areas including the Humber Estuary, with £80m set to be spent, and £196m for the Thames Estuary.

Ministers will also commit to spending £15.5m on flood defences in Somerset in the next six years - including £4.2m on the Somerset Levels which were hit badly by flooding last winter.

The Government has come under fire over funding for flood defences.

Danny Alexander MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: "We all saw the destruction and heartache caused by flooding last year and that is why this investment is vital to build up Britain's defences for the future.

"The projects we are announcing today will protect some of the country's most at risk locations ensuring that we will be as prepared as possible for future severe weather."

1/8

  1. Gallery: Somerset Flooding - Before & After

    Before: a farm in West Yeo, near Bridgewater on the Somerset Levels. Pic: Bing maps

After: The flooded farmland in West Yeo

]]>

Before: The village of Moorland near Bridgewater on the Somerset Levels. Pic: Bing maps

]]>

After: Flooded properties in Moorland

]]>

Before: Walton-On-Thames, Surrey

]]>

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Autumn Statement Bingo: What To Listen Out For

Political Editor Faisal Islam and Economics Editor Ed Conway pick out five key words and phrases likely to pass the lips of the Chancellor during the Autumn Statement.

Faisal's Five

:: Long-Term Economic Plan

The four word slogan drilled in to every piece of Conservative messaging online, offline, from speeches to mugs.

Designed to offer the electorate a feeling that the good times will return if they stick to the plan.

:: Northern Powerhouse

It was a phrase scratched together quickly by a clever Number 11 adviser to head off a Labour initiative on rebalancing the economy.

But it has grown in to a multifaceted plan for transport, science, devolving powers to create a mini-London along the M62.

:: The Choice

From now until the election the Conservative strategy is to shake the electorate into viewing the election not as a fight over policy, but as a straightforward choice between two prime ministers.

David Cameron with a growing economy after tough choices. And Ed Miliband, who they want the nation to view as an unconvincing anti-business former adviser to Gordon Brown.

:: Our NHS

In Conservative speeches the NHS has acquired a possessive pronoun.

The party knows public trust is weak for them on this, so they are after a score draw with Labour, neutralising claims of "privatisation" and attacking the Labour record in Wales.

:: In it Together

The old ones are the best. Many would argue that by promising unfunded tax cuts and further cash freezes in benefits, this phrase is now old hat.

But look out for the Chancellor trying to make the argument that British austerity was modest and moderate, in comparison to that seen in say Spain and Greece.

Ed's Five

:: A recovery for all

The point behind this buzzphrase is that the Treasury is worried about the perception that the recovery is not being shared by all - that the wealthiest have benefited most from its post-crisis policies while the poorest have faced the biggest squeeze.

:: Cutting the deficit by a third

There is bound to be some kind of line about how much the Government has cut the deficit - though the precise configuration tends to change from year to year.

:: "760,000 new businesses since 2010"

This recent buzzphrase is being trotted out repeatedly by Government ministers.

It's intended to underline how dynamic the business community is at the moment. And, indeed, the number of businesses being created right now is rising very quickly.

However, some notes of caution are in order: it is likely that a significant chunk of these new businesses are single-person companies.

:: Strongest growth in the Western world

The Chancellor will almost certainly point towards figures showing Britain is growing faster than many of its peers.

And indeed, the improvement in GDP, and the fall in unemployment, have been sharper in the UK than in many other developed countries.

:: Full employment

Earlier this year, the Chancellor pledged to try to "fight for full employment in Britain".

Expect this to resurface at some point in the Autumn Statement. In part this is another bit of political signalling - an effort to get people to focus on the positive news from the labour market.


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New Garden City To Be Built In Bicester

A new garden city will be built in Oxfordshire under Coalition plans to deal with a housing shortage.

The new town, which would have up to 13,000 homes, would be built near Bicester and would include a £44m capital investment from the Government for roads including a new junction on the M40.

The plans will be outlined in the National Infrastructure Plan set to be published on Wednesday ahead of the Autumn Statement, alongside a range of other housing measures.

A Government loan would be provided for the development of amenities including green transport.

Ebbsfleet in Kent was announced earlier this year as the location for the first modern garden city.

Bicester has also expressed an interest and could receive a new railway station as part of the proposals announced by Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.

Mr Clegg told the Daily Telegraph: "The Liberal Democrats have long argued that garden cities are an idea whose time has come again.

"I am delighted that Bicester can now be confirmed as a pioneer in what I hope will be another wave of garden cities in this country.

"Bicester will get help from the Government with both significant capital investment and in helping developers build the amenities that are required to be a true garden town."

Under the proposals, a series of new communities with green spaces, sustainable transport and spacious housing will be built.

Mr Clegg has previously promised at least 10 would be created if the Liberal Democrats are part of the next Government.

:: Watch Sky News for the Chancellor's Autumn Statement live on Wednesday, 3 December, on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 132 and Freesat channel 202.


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Weak Growth Will Force More Cuts From Osborne

Written By Unknown on Senin, 01 Desember 2014 | 14.47

Britain is slowly getting back on its feet, but the recovery is still doing little to heal the public finances.

In the space of a year, the jobless rate in the UK has reduced rapidly, from 7.6% a year ago, to just 6% now.

Unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels and more people in work should mean more taxes and national insurance flowing to the Exchequer.

The Chancellor had certainly been counting on that cash to reduce shortfall between its resources, and its spending commitments.

Even the Government's accountants had predicted a 7% rise in income tax receipts for this year.

Yet the current tally shows they are only up about 0.4%.

Still, the tax year isn't over yet and the Office For Budget Responsibility expects tax receipts to be what they call "end-loaded" in 2014-15.

That is partly due to the shifting tax band brackets and a glut of self-assessment payments they expect to pour in after the deadline in January.

However, over the past year alone, factors such as weaker-than-expected wage growth, lower-than-expected residential property transactions and lower oil and gas revenues make it unlikely that either the Chancellor's or his accountants' expectations will be met.

Especially if you then factor in the lasting effects of the past six years.

Over the course of the financial crisis many highly paid jobs, like banking, have been lost and not yet replaced.

Meanwhile, the newly created jobs have been low paid and more workers are classed as "self-employed" - with both these groups paying less tax.

You will have noticed your tax free allowance has risen - to £10,500.

And with wage growth virtually stagnant, fewer workers are moving into higher tax brackets.

That all eats into the Chancellor's take.

This leaves the Treasury with far less revenue than predicted - and forced to make cuts and borrow more.

That's just what we expect George Osborne to do in the Autumn Statement on 3 December.

:: Watch Sky News for the Chancellor's Autumn Statement live on Wednesday, 3 December, on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 132 and Freesat channel 202.


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Cyber Monday: Retailers Brace For Online Surge

Retailers are preparing for another half-a-billion-pound online shopping surge on Cyber Monday today.

The event is the online-only follow-up to Black Friday, which saw bargain hunters spend £1.6bn across the high street and internet.

Card payment firm Visa said £600m of the £1.6bn raked in was spent on the internet.

Amazon, Currys and Tesco are among the big players lining up new deals and hoping their websites hold up to the virtual stampede.

Electronics retailer ao.com predicts today will be its best ever day of sales, with televisions and small kitchen appliances expected to be the best performing categories, and is offering a host of fresh deals.

Amazon.co.uk is planning to release hundreds of limited "lightning deals" which offer discounts for a specific period, with new offers coming online every 10 minutes.

Some sites, such as Currys, Argos and Game, crashed under the demand on Friday - the biggest ever online shopping day in the UK, according to Visa.

Visa Europe chief Kevin Jenkins said: "Compared to Black Friday last year online spend on Visa cards increased more than 30% and high street spend by about 20%.

"Heading into Cyber Monday we're likely to see a further £500m spent online, peaking in the early evening as workers return home and log on."

But security experts have warned consumers to be wary of cyber crime and take basic precautions as they shop.

Giovanni Ruberto, online security expert at Intel Security, said: "Cyber Monday is set to be the biggest online shopping day this year, and of course the bad guys know this.

"Whilst consumers are logging on from their laptop or smartphone to grab a bargain, you can bet cybercriminals will be doing all they can to trick unwitting consumers to hand over credit card information and personal details."

Recent years have seen online shopping peak on the first Monday in December.

It is thought to be down to many people's last payday before Christmas falling on the previous Friday and a weekend spent browsing the shops before buying online.

However, some retailers have been criticised for whipping people into a shopping frenzy and not having proper security at Black Friday events.

Shoppers were filmed arguing and fighting each other for cut price televisions, with witnesses saying some bargain hunters behaved "like animals".

Former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr George Carey on Sunday called the supermarkets "irresponsible" and said the event "serves no useful purpose".

Black Friday was introduced in America on the day after Thanksgiving and is thought to have been given its name because brisk business was said to have helped retailers back into profit - into the black.

The event was introduced to this country by Amazon in 2010.


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BG Group CEO Sees Share Package Cut By 53%

Oil and gas exploration giant BG Group has cut the pay package, originally worth up to £25m, for its incoming chief executive.

Helge Lund's share award has been revised downwards by some 53%, from around £10m to about £4.7m.

He will continue to receive a salary, pension and benefits package of £15m.

Last week the Institute of Directors warned that the pay deal for the new CEO was "excessive" and "inflammatory" and urged shareholders to vote against the deal.

The share award reduction now means the proposal does not have to be approved by shareholders, and is within policy guidelines formulated last May.

Mr Lund takes over BG Group in early 2015, after previously turning Norway's Statoil into a publicly-traded company.

The share award turnaround comes as the price of oil continues to fall.

Brent crude is down 40% since mid-June and approaching five-year lows.

However forecourt prices have only dropped 6% during 2014, according to the AA motoring group.

Despite the downward pressure on prices, potentially increasing the use of motor vehicles, fuel sales have dropped in the last year.

The AA said October sales were down 20% on the same month last year, even though pump prices were 8p a litre cheaper.

The declining sales strikes another chord of concern for the Government, as it sees reducing tax and duty receipts as a result.

Chancellor George Osborne has seen income tax revenue remain static, confounding a forecast 7% rise as the jobless count drops.

More follows...


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US Jobless Rate At July 2008 Low Of 5.8%

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 08 November 2014 | 14.47

The US jobless rate has hit its lowest level since July 2008, with the economy creating 214,000 net new jobs in October.

The fall in the rate from 5.9% in September was unexpected - and highlighted some greater resilience in the labour market as more people joined the workforce.

The data was released just three days after voters, frustrated by the economy, gave President Barack Obama a kicking in the midterm elections.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 231,000 new jobs last month but the performance meant that job growth, following revisions, has now exceeded 200,000 in each of the last nine months, sufficient strength to keep the economy on a higher growth path.

It expanded at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, despite early signs of weaker global demand.

The market focus was on wages, in addition to the core job numbers, as employment gains on their own will probably not be enough to convince the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates before the second half of 2015.

Kept at near-zero since December 2008, economists expect the Fed will want to see real evidence of rising wages before raising rates so not to risk choking off economic recovery.

The Labor Department data said average hourly earnings rose only three cents last month, leaving the year-on-year change below pre-recession levels at 2%.

The participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, increased to 62.8% while the employment-to-population ratio also rose to its highest level since 2009.

World stock markets barely moved in reaction to the figures - seen as a crucial indicator of US economic strength - with the data doing little to alter rate rise forecasts.


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