PM's Case For Union With Defence Jobs Warning

Salmond Must Set Out Defence Plan

Updated: 8:37am UK, Thursday 04 April 2013

By Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

Philip Hammond, in a speech last month, described the SNP's vision of an independent defence force as "insultingly vague" and "incredibly short on detail".

Hyperbole to make a point perhaps, but certainly Alex Salmond and his SNP colleagues have failed to set out a plan for a credible armed forces in the event of independence.

On the issue of Trident, the UK's nuclear deterrent, Salmond is clear: the SNP does not want it in an independent Scotland.

There will be many people in Scotland who will support him on that - the SNP claims about 80% of the electorate in fact.

Trident is held up by nationalists as an example of Scotland's wishes being ignored in favour of London's wants.

It would be costly for the Westminster government to move it - many billions of pounds - but plenty of communities in England and Wales would probably welcome the jobs and investment it brings.

Mr Salmond says that a Scottish defence force would be a part of Nato but it wouldn't - at least not immediately.

Nato has given no such guarantee and Scotland would have to be accepted in.

Its opposition to Trident - which acts as an umbrella deterrent for the whole alliance - would not work in its favour.

The SNP reckons on inheriting what is rightfully theirs from the current UK defence capability.

The Westminster government in theory seems happy to give them that, if only on account of the fact that it is a fairly laughable gift list.

It includes: 5 Chinooks, 10 Typhoon jets, 2 Hercules, half a submarine and under one Red Arrow.

What about manpower?

The British Armed Forces is rightfully proud of its Scottish elements; they have a long and illustrious history and no-one would want to see them leave.

Again an independent Scotland would look to retain the Scottish elements of the UK military, about 4,750 personnel as it stands.

It would then recruit roughly 10,000 more to reach a fighting force of 15,000.

Most analysts calculate significantly more would be needed in support and logistical roles.

You have to assume within these figures that ALL current Scottish military personnel would want to switch to an independent defence force.

And what would they be joining? That would depend on membership of Nato and the SNP's foreign policy.

Many of the training and combat opportunities offered as part of a wider UK military could be lost.

If this all sounds somewhat disparaging and one-sided so far, that is because Mr Salmond has yet to make a sound case for an independent Scottish Defence Force.

That is not to say an independent Scottish Defence Forces is not possible. Of course it is but it would take a lot of time and a lot of money.

Either the SNP have not grasped that or they do not want to admit it.

They are not completely sitting on their hands though.

Angus Robertson, the SNP spokesman on defence, has been to Denmark and Norway to see their respective setups.

And an internal review is underway that might provide some substance.

But Scotland would have to develop counter-espionage facilities, Special Forces units, cyber security capabilities and buy most of the requisite hardware anew.

None of these things happen quickly: you only need to look at the UK example to see that, and to be reminded how shambolic slow procurement can occasionally be.

What is really important in the wider independence debate is that the defence industry creates and sustains jobs for the Scottish economy, of that there is little argument.

The recent re-basing plan announced last month will result in some base closures in Scotland, which is naturally unpopular.

The counter-argument is that the number of personnel based there will rise by 800 as part of the shake-up.

Mr Salmond needs to set out what Scotland needs and why.

No-one doubts that an independent defence force would be possible, but he must define its shape, its purpose and crucially its cost. As yet, he has not done so.

This leaves the Westminster government able to make the running on the defence argument for now. And they know it.

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